Unregulated Futures: Scenario Planning for the Unknown
Presentation / Conference
Crawford, M., Roubelat, F., & Marchais-Roubelat, A. (2024, September)
Unregulated Futures: Scenario Planning for the Unknown. Presented at Anticipation 2024, Lancaster, UK
Building from years of piloting novel methods for future visioning through group engagement, this curated session will take attendees through a fast-tracked, yet fully- immers...
Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook
Presentation / Conference
Crawford, M. (2024, June)
Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook. Paper presented at 33rd European Conference on Operational Research, Copenhagen, Denmark
A series of lab and field studies were conducted with managers, executives, and postgraduates to test the hypothesis that priming effects exist within any given scenario plann...
Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning
Book
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. (in press)
Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning. UK: Edward Elgar Publishing
This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories informing global scenario planning and foresight science. The collection of chapters details new and broa...
Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?
Journal Article
Belton, I., Wright, G., Sissons, A., Bolger, F., Crawford, M. M., Hamlin, I., …Vasilichi, A. (2021)
Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120897
In this paper, we investigate the effect of Delphi group size and opinion diversity on group members’ information load as well as on their overall experience of the Delphi pro...
A comprehensive scenario intervention typology
Journal Article
Crawford, M. M. (2019)
A comprehensive scenario intervention typology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 149, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119748
Scenario planning, as a recognised organisational intervention, has steadily grown in popularity since the mid-20th century. To date, there are arguably as many methods and te...
Delphi Method
Other
Grime, M. M., & Wright, G. (2016)
Delphi Method. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118445112.stat07879
This article lays out the basic structure of the Delphi method, along with common modifications, and recently developed mixed-model forecasting techniques.Delphi offers a basi...